Trzaskowski is a liberal allied with Prime Minister Donald Tusk who speaks foreign languages and holds pro-European Union views.
Nawrocki is a conservative historian with no prior political experience who was backed by the national conservative Law and Justice party. The head of a state historical institute, Nawrocki has positioned himself as a defender of conservative values and national sovereignty. He was welcomed by Trump at the White House earlier this month in what was viewed as an endorsement.
It was a worse showing for Trzaskowski than opinion polls had predicted, and it appeared overall to be a good showing for the candidates on the right in a large field of 13 candidates.
Nawrocki appeared to do better than opinion polls had predicted, even though he faced allegations of obtaining an apartment from an elderly man in a dishonest manner — something he denies. He since donated the apartment to charity.
Addressing his supporters, Nawrocki hailed his result, noting that there was just a “cosmetic difference” between himself, a political newcomer, and Trzaskowski, long viewed as the front-runner.
“I would like to thank the millions of Poles who voted for me,” he said during an election night event in Gdansk. “The millions of Poles who did not succumb to the pressure of propaganda, falsehood, lies.”
A far-right candidate, Sławomir Mentzen was projected to garner 15.4%, while an extreme right-wing candidate, Grzegorz Braun, was predicted to win 6.2%, according to the exit poll.
Exit polls have a small margin of error and the official vote count could differ somewhat, but they show that the terrain ahead could be harder than expected for Trzaskowski.
Although Poland’s prime minister and parliament hold primary authority over domestic policy, the presidency carries substantial power, with a strong role in foreign and security policy and veto power over laws.
The conservative outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, has repeatedly used that power over more than the past year to hamper Tusk’s agenda.
A Trzaskowski victory could be expected to end such a standoff.
“The game for everything is just beginning,” Tusk tweeted Sunday evening. “A tough fight for every vote. These two weeks will decide the future of our homeland. Therefore, not a step back.”
Trzaskowski has pledged to support reforms to the courts and public media, both of which critics say were politicized under Law and Justice. Tusk’s opponents accuse him of also politicizing public media.
Trzaskowski, who ran for the presidency in 2020 and narrowly lost to Duda, had been polling higher earlier in the campaign but had mishaps including disappointing debate performances, with behavior described by political commentators as overconfident or even arrogant.
In a speech to his supporters in Sandomierz, Trzaskowski said he knew the race would be hard and acknowledged that there is a lot of work ahead. He reached out to the voters of other candidates, appealing for their votes in the second round.
He described Nawrocki as someone who is “radical and seeks conflict" and promised to be a constructive president who would reduce tensions in the deeply divided nation.
The election comes at a time of heightened security concerns stemming from the war in neighboring Ukraine and growing worry that the U.S. commitment to Europe's security could be weakening under President Donald Trump.
Polish authorities have reported foreign attempts at interference during the campaign, including denial-of-service attacks targeting parties in Tusk's coalition and allegations by a state research institute that political ads on Facebook were funded from abroad.
Monika Laskowska-Dzierbicka, a 36-year-old clinical psychology, voted in Warsaw for Trzaskowski. She said she feels “he would be able to resolve disputes, that he would not divide Poles."
"Rafał Trzaskowski is a competent person, he knows languages, so he will try to get along with everyone," she said.
At the same Warsaw polling station, a Nawrocki supporter, Irena Kuczyńska, 79, said she viewed Nawrocki as someone who embodies traditional Polish values. “From the old days of my family, God, Honor and Fatherland are the most important. And that’s why I’m with Mr. Nawrocki."
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